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Democrats Surging As Latest Poll Shows Them Up 6%
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In a poll released by McClatchy/Marist on Tuesday, 48% of registered voters stated that they’d vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress this November. This contrasts with 42% of registered voters who said they’d go for the Republican candidate. 4% claimed they’d vote for an independent or third party candidate while 6% said that they’re undecided.

Obviously, both Democrats and Republicans favored their own party heavily. 90% of Democrats said they’d vote for the Democratic candidate, while 94% of Republicans favored someone from the GOP. What the poll did reveal is that Democrats have a slight edge with independents, as 43% said they’d go for the Democratic candidate over 40% who would vote for a Republican. Also, Democrats have an 18-point advantage with moderates, with 53% favoring Democrats against 35% who favor the GOP.

Regionally, Democrats hold an edge everywhere but in the Midwest. Even in the South, Democrats are up by one point, 46-45. In the Northeast, Democrats hold a huge 20-point advantage, 56-36. Dems also have a pretty large lead in the West, as 49% prefer a Democratic candidate as opposed to 41% who like the GOP. Even in the Midwest, the GOP’s advantage isn’t large, as they hold a two-point lead with 13% either undecided or favoring neither party.

Now, this doesn’t say that the Democrats are primed to take over the House in November. As we all know, it isn’t one large national election, but rather hundreds of local and regional elections. On top of that, the vast majority of Congressional districts will not have competitive elections, as they are drawn up in such a way to favor one party heavily over the other. Still, there are roughly 25-30 truly competitive House races this year, with another 20 or so that could become interesting.

Democrats need to flip 17 seats to take over the House of Representatives in November. It will be tough, but not impossible. With this most recent poll, we see that there is an appetite among the electorate to get rid of the House Republicans that have gummed up the works since taking over the House after the 2010 midterms

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us140407/Obama/Complete%20April%202014%20USA%20McClatchy_Marist%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf


Latest Activity: Apr 16, 2014 at 3:44 PM


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timeontarget commented on Wednesday, Apr 16, 2014 at 16:39 PM

Dr. Benjamin S. Carson

There are many sinister forces that are vying for power in our American society.

Most of these are associated with politically ambitious individuals who are far more concerned about power and prestige than they are about the people’s welfare.

Uninformed citizens tend to be trusting of some of these forces without doing due diligence in terms of studying their previous performance or their associations with dubious characters.

An uninformed voter, for instance, might ignore the fact that their favorite candidate had a long history of associating with radical elements, because the candidate proclaims his good intentions and promises them justice.

A well-informed voter who favored the same candidate might engage in further investigation on their own, discover that the candidate represented an organization found to be engaged in illegal practices, and change their vote as a result of the discovery.

sebekm commented on Wednesday, Apr 16, 2014 at 19:53 PM

PN: I couldn't get your link to come up.

The actual poll is here:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-conte...

Note also the following results which were also included in this poll:

*"Majority Still Disapproves of Obama’s Performance as President

--When it comes to the overall job performance of President Obama, a majority of registered voters nationally -- 52% -- disapproves of how the president is doing. 45% approve, and 3% are unsure. These views are similar to those in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey. In February, 52% of voters thought the president’s job performance was lacking. 42% gave him high marks, and 5% were unsure.

--When it comes to how President Obama is handling the economy, a majority of voters -- 54% -- disapproves. 44% approve, and 2% are unsure. Last time, 54% thought Mr. Obama fell short on the economy while 41% gave him a thumbs-up. Five percent were unsure.

--In the foreign policy arena, 52% of voters disapprove of how the president is doing. 42% approve, and 6% are unsure. Two months ago, 50% disapproved of how President."

and

*"Nearly Two-Thirds Pessimistic about the Direction of the Nation

64% of adults think the country is moving in the wrong direction. 32% believe it is on the right path, and 3% are unsure. There has been virtually little change from McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey. In February, 64% of residents reported the nation was on the wrong road. 33% said it was on the right track, and 3% were unsure."

See also the breakdown of the poll as to who the respondents were (i.e. the percentage who described themselves as Democrats, Republicans, and Independents).

These poll results bear watching. They may indicate a national trend as far as the House races go, although these results are at odds with other polls I have seen. I also know of no Democrat prognosticator who gives the Dems a chance of regaining the house.

We shall see, but good info.

sebekm commented on Wednesday, Apr 16, 2014 at 19:56 PM

(My link didn't work after I posted it above either. If you go to this Dem web site:

http://www.politicususa.com/2014/04/1...

and click on the link in the first paragraph, then the entire poll comes up.)

PoliticsNation commented on Wednesday, Apr 16, 2014 at 20:21 PM

Seb- well it seems the President is doing much better than the Republicans.

When it comes to the job Republicans are doing.
69% don't approve of the job Republicans are doing...26%a approve.

Obamacare is moving forward and doing better than expected.

Americans increasingly prefer Democrats on healthcare: Reuters/Ipsos poll

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/0...

Uninsured rates drop faster in states embracing Obamacare: Study http://on.msnbc.com/1j0OMS7

It's the data point you probably won't hear on the right.

New predictions find that overall the ACA should reduce deficits: http://on.msnbc.com/1na4ktC

New York exceeds Obamacare enrollment expectations by 60 percent, premiums halved
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04...

sebekm commented on Wednesday, Apr 16, 2014 at 21:13 PM

Yes - that's the way "blue America" is selling it. Unfortunately, the Bundy ranch is only representative of "red America" in the minds of Democrats.

HMJC commented on Thursday, Apr 17, 2014 at 12:14 PM

Polls, Polls, Polls... It seems we are infatuated by the latest statistics and projections. The real issue here is the same one that has plagued the last two elections. Voters continue to not make an effort to be an "informed" voter. It is no surprise that in this day and age the media and which ever slant it chooses to present has an enormous impact with voters that failed to do some research on their own. It seems that the Kool-Aid is still the drink of choice regardless of a nation that is divided, apathetic, and sees our stature diminished on a daily basis. Keep in mind that for any positive this administration has accomplished; there is also a list of lies, failures, and many broken promises. To this day I will never be convinced that the good has outweighed the bad for the last 6 years. Our country is in trouble and if we continue on the same course it is not going to matter who controls what...

sebekm commented on Thursday, Apr 17, 2014 at 18:28 PM

Amen. But I do like polls, because honest ones tend to reveal how WE THE PEOPLE feel about things. One caught my eye earlier today. Despite the fact that it was sponsored by Fox News, it was jointly conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (a Democrat polling firm) and Shaw & Company Research (a Republican polling firm). With "joint partisanship" in the poll's administration, the results should be at least as good as what gets reported by the Democrats on MSNBC.

This new poll reveals one reason ObamaCare is still THE issue for November:

"About six in ten American voters think Barack Obama lies to the country on important matters some or most of the time."

See: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/inter...

One can not understate the significance of this number, as it includes not only the 30+% who call themselves Republicans, but about the same percentage who call themselves Independents and even some (just a smidgen of) Democrats. When they don't believe you, they tune you out. When they tune you out, you might as well be speaking to an empty hall.

At today's "first official press conference of 2014," the President once again waxed "mission accomplished" and cited ObamaCare numbers which exceeded the administration's goals. But most people won't buy his numbers because of the credibility shortfall demonstrated by the above poll. Further, to take credit for millions of people in an "enrollment" figure who had healtn care policies they liked cancelled, and thereafter were forced to settle for policies which limits choices and increases premiums and deductibles is the height of arrogance.

On the flip side: I saw Michelle Nunn's TV ad last night for the first time. IMHO - it sets a perfect tone for a campaign advertisement in today's political climate:

*There wasn't a single negative thing said about anybody.

*She didn't mention President Obama or ObamaCare one time.

*She made prominent mention of working with "President Bush's (The Elder) Points of Light Foundation" (Ms. Nunn is currently on leave of absence from her position as the CEO).

For a Democrat running for an open Senate seat in Georgia, this is a PERFECT strategy. In fact, it is smart politics for ANY Democrat running for ANY contested Senate seat in this election cycle. The smart ones don't want Obama campaigning with them; they never mention ObamaCare (but if they do they pledge to "fix it"); and they just want the President to STAY AWAY. They don't even want him fundraising for them in their state. (But I'm sure they'll take any money from the DNC via back-channel).

I saw the Kingston ad the other day with the phony Obama phone call. I guess they think it will motivate their base, but I think it will turn off everybody else.

sebekm commented on Thursday, Apr 17, 2014 at 18:46 PM

P.S. for PN: It took me awhile to get around to enlarging your second media graphic. There are two problems with it:

*Mr. Obama's "12 million" number is bogus. As mentioned above, he doesn't get to take credit for the millions of people who were forced into ObamaCare healthcare exchanges solely because policies they liked were cancelled by the insurance companies or by the law itself. If the situation was reversed and it was President Romney who was touting HIS "signature" health care law, I am 100% certain that the Democrats wouldn't let him get away with it either.

*The "Meanwhile, in Red America" assertion is also totally bogus. Why? Because last time I checked, Mr. Obama carried Nevada - where the Bundy ranch is located - by an aggregate of 18 points in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Also, the senior senator from Nevada is Mr. Obama's Senate Majority Leader. So Nevada has to be "in BLUE America" to any unbiased observer.

I suspect that the people responsible for creating this graphic may have had a hand in crafting the original ObamaCare legislation.

PoliticsNation commented on Thursday, Apr 17, 2014 at 20:28 PM

Ever thought about what the country would like like in a few years if Obamacare hadn't been passed? This is what the Congressional Budget Office's analysis shows: http://ofa.bo/qYG

PoliticsNation commented on Thursday, Apr 17, 2014 at 20:39 PM

The state of Georgia seems to have become callous and indifferent to the needs of its most vulnerable people. The poor, the seniors, and the sick must travel to a state office and pay for an ID card just to register to vote. The ill and the suffering will receive no relief from the expansion of Medicaid. People who feared they might lose their homes can't receive help in time to save themselves from foreclosure, even though millions of dollars were allocated by the federal government to the hardest hit states. And now the hungry, who are looking for Georgia to offer a safety net of support are victimized by poor management, even when federal money is available.
JOHN LEWIS

Sheran commented on Thursday, Apr 17, 2014 at 21:36 PM

Sebekm, Ilove it.☺☺☺ You have PN stuttering .

Ever thought about what the country would like like in a few years if Obamacare hadn't been passed?

PoliticsNation commented on Thursday, Apr 17, 2014 at 21:53 PM

Hello Sheran, that's too funny...like like...lol. Have a great great night night...

timeontarget commented on Friday, Apr 18, 2014 at 07:37 AM

"There is another class of coloured people who make a business of keeping the troubles, the wrongs, and the hardships of the Negro race before the public. Having learned that they are able to make a living out of their troubles, they have grown into the settled habit of advertising their wrongs — partly because they want sympathy and partly because it pays. Some of these people do not want the Negro to lose his grievances, because they do not want to lose their jobs.”
― Booker T. Washington

PoliticsNation commented on Friday, Apr 18, 2014 at 08:38 AM

TOT- yes, there will always be race hustlers but I also believe this quote is just as befitting.

For Blacks are not the only victims. How many white children have gone uneducated, how many white families have lived in stark poverty, how many white lives have been scarred by fear, because we have wasted our energy and our substance to maintain the barriers of hatred and terror? So I say to all of you here, and to all in the Nation tonight, that those who appeal to you to hold on to the past do so at the cost of denying you your future. This great, rich, restless country can offer opportunity and education and hope to all: black and white, North and South, sharecropper and city dweller. These are the enemies: poverty, ignorance, disease. They are the enemies and not our fellow man, not our neighbor. And these enemies too, poverty, disease and ignorance, we shall over, come
-Lyndon B Johnson

timeontarget commented on Friday, Apr 18, 2014 at 16:58 PM

"I'll have those n*ggers voting Democratic for the next 200 years."
~ Lyndon B. Johnson to two governors on Air Force One

I had never heard the above quote from Ronald Kessler's book, Inside the White House before but my father had told me about LBJ's terrible mouth and frightful personality.

PoliticsNation commented on Friday, Apr 18, 2014 at 18:04 PM

TOT I want go back and fourth with you or your relatives (whoever writes your blogs from time to time). You guys have a great weekend...


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