Florida State vs. Ohio State
"I Don't Mind A Parasite. I Object To A Cut-Rate One."
Last comment by sebekm 8 months, 1 week ago.

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Yes - that's how the BCS national championship game is shaping up after yesterday's "upset" of Alabama by Auburn. Most of the talking heads I heard last night were ranting about how Saban (the figurehead I love to hate) was out-coached during the entire game, but especially on the final play (i.e., having "no real athletes on the field - just a bunch of fat guys," and choosing to attempt a field goal in the first place). Now we have the very likely scenario where the only way the SEC gets into the big game is to back in via a loss by one of the major undefeateds.

Sporty - we really have missed your comprehensive yet incisive commentary on the season. What say you about yesterday's happenings? And especially, how do you see the BCS bowls shaping up?


Latest Activity: Dec 01, 2013 at 12:46 PM


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sebekm commented on Sunday, Dec 01, 2013 at 13:04 PM

Here's the case for FL State - Auburn (despite the title of the article):

http://espn.go.com/ncf/notebook/_/pag...

SportsFan31313 commented on Sunday, Dec 01, 2013 at 14:14 PM

Well this is how I see it without reading the article by ESPN Sebekm.

Ohio State and Florida State are now the only two teams that are undefeated in a major conference. In a customary role, those two should play for the National Title. But this is not a customary role might I say. The SEC is by far the Strongest Conference in the NCAA Division I Football. With 7 National Titles in a row, that speaks volumes about the Conference, and the team that are assigned in that conference. Lets compare the Big ten to the SEC conference.

#3 Ranked Ohio State have NOT beaten any top ten teams this season. They beat a 13th Northwestern, and a 23 ranked Wisconsin. The remainder of the teams are ranked.

#11 Ranked Michigan State have NOT beaten a top ten team this season either. They lost to #22 Notre Dame (at that time of the season)and they beat #21 Michigan. (ranked at that time)

#1 Alabama beat #6 Texas A&M, (at that time) they had beaten 13th ranked LSU,and they beat 21st ranked Ole Miss. Of course they lost to #4 ranked Auburn last night.

# Auburn Beat a ranked Georgia,(at the time) Texas A&M (#7 ranked at the time)Losing to #6 LSU (at the time)and they beat the #1 ranked team in the country.

It's too early to tell, but I believe that Ohio State will fall to Michigan State this weekend. I believe the luck will run out on Ohio State.

If that occurs then Auburn will be in the National Championship jumping to the number two spot or even the number one spot if Florida State loses. But I doubt it seriously. Auburn will be the #2 ranked team this going into this week.

Again it is still too early to tell. Missouri still is wreaking havoc in the SEC. They have beaten #7 Georgia (at that time) top 10 Texas A&M ( they were in the top ten during the early part of the season) Florida (also was in the top ten early season) they beat Ole Miss who was ranked too. Losing only to South Carolina who is also ranked.

Just those three teams out of the SEC strength of schedule far exceeds the schedule of the Big 10.

If Ohio State gets in, they will not beat any SEC team nor will they beat a Florida State team. They will lose by at least 10 points. This will be another case of last year's Notre Dame against Alabama. In my opinion, Notre Dame had no business being in a National Title game. They could not have beaten ANY top ten SEC team. They too would have lost by 10 points or more, as as you watched that beating, you knew it too.

If Auburn plays for the national Title Title, they will win making the SEC 8 years in a row of winning a National Title.

JimmyMack commented on Sunday, Dec 01, 2013 at 17:01 PM

Where do you think the Dawgs will end up playing and who SF3?

sebekm commented on Sunday, Dec 01, 2013 at 18:13 PM

Good analysis, but if OH State and Fl State win out, they will play for the BCS national championship. No doubt about it.

sebekm commented on Sunday, Dec 01, 2013 at 18:25 PM

...and I believe that they will. Urban Meyer had the "luck" when he coached FL. Michigan had the luck on Saturday, and it got them a one point loss. The only reason Michigan got that close was the motivation of the rivalry game to stick it to Ohio State. Believe it or not, Michigan State's schedule was even softer than Ohio State's was. Michigan State's loss was against - ta da - Notre Dame. They only put up 13 points against them, and only beat Purdue 14-0.

Ohio State - on the other hand - beat Purdue 56-0. The OH State-MI State game will be played in Indianapolis, which is supposedly a "neutral site," but the travel time from Columbus, OH to Indianapolis is a little over two hours. It might as well be a home game for Ohio State.

IMHO - there is ZERO chance that Duke beats Florida State. All of the talking heads I listened to across the spectrum yesterday and today agree with me: If #1 and #2 win out, they will play, and the bias AGAINST the SEC that I have been talking about in other blogs for the past year or so will make OH State and FL State a lock.

It will be interesting, but now that the SEC is on the outside looking in, all that is left is the hope that #1 or #2 loses. I say it ain't gonna happen.

JimmyMack commented on Sunday, Dec 01, 2013 at 18:45 PM

Yes...but what a run it was!!

sebekm commented on Sunday, Dec 01, 2013 at 19:15 PM

It was....and it still might be. I don't think it will be happen, but I've been wrong before.

BTW: I just responded to your "God is on our side" post. Nothing new.....just tried sorting things out....

mountain commented on Monday, Dec 02, 2013 at 10:12 AM

If Ohio State and Florida State play for the BCS national championship this game will not be worth watching, it will be nothing but a blowout.

JimmyMack commented on Monday, Dec 02, 2013 at 18:19 PM

By Blowout, Mountain, do you mean FSU blowing out OSU?

mountain commented on Tuesday, Dec 03, 2013 at 11:10 AM

yes, it will be another Alabama, Notre Dame like game.

sebekm commented on Wednesday, Dec 04, 2013 at 12:48 PM

Could be, but that's the system we currently have. The plain fact of the matter is that there is so much "SEC fatigue" outside of SEC-Land that those not drinking the Kool-Aid are looking for any way to keep the SEC OUT of the national championship game. This has been and will be reflected as the humans vote.

The computers already bumped up Ohio State after the AP/Coaches polls came out, which indicates that the computers have no issue with OH State as #2. The numbers interval between OH State and Auburn is similar to that between FL State and OH State, so it's no closer in the BCS rankings between OH State and Auburn than it is between FL State and OH State.

The only hope SEC fans have is for MI State to win - because unless FL State goes flat like Clemson did against them, I can't see any way on God's green earth that Duke beats them. So FL State is IN. And having seen Urban Meyer do what he did with what he had at FL, I don't expect OH State to be flat. Usually the QB is key in big games, and Meyer has two EXCELLENT ones - along with one of the best power backs in college football. OH State will be primed and ready.

SportsFan31313 commented on Saturday, Dec 07, 2013 at 21:55 PM

Upset Alert!!'!!!!

Ohio State 07
Michigan State 17 2nd Qtr.

Tiger5 commented on Saturday, Dec 07, 2013 at 23:09 PM

24-3 Ohio St. run...

SportsFan31313 commented on Saturday, Dec 07, 2013 at 23:58 PM

Ohio State 24
Michigan State 34. 1:00 4th Qtr.

I told you so Sebekm.

Auburn plays Florida State for the National Title, abd Auburn wins it all. 8 years in the making.

SportsFan31313 commented on Sunday, Dec 08, 2013 at 00:06 AM

Ohio State 24
Michigan State 34 Final

SportsFan31313 commented on Sunday, Dec 08, 2013 at 00:11 AM

Here is is my top 5 prediction before tomorrow official ranking.

1 Florida State
2 Auburn
3 Alabama
4. Stanford
5. South Carolina

JimmyMack commented on Sunday, Dec 08, 2013 at 11:57 AM

This has been one the most entertaining years that I have ever witnessed in College Football. Even with the Dawgs falling short of expectations, the play of all the other contenders and pretenders has been amazing!

Now perhaps another miracle awaits us: A continuation of an SEC team in the National Championship game. With Ohio State now out of the picture, all them miracles pulled out by Auburn, tells me that they have got to be a team of Destiny. What a shoot-out awaits us now between FSU and Auburn.

What a year!!!!

You just cannot beat NCAA FOOTBALL!!!!

sebekm commented on Sunday, Dec 08, 2013 at 13:01 PM

"The only hope SEC fans have is for MI State to win..."

They did. Congratulations to Auburn, who certainly looks like a "team of destiny." OH State couldn't close the deal and FL State started slow but finally steamrolled Duke.

It has been a very interesting and entertaining year - even with the Dawgs disappointing the nation. FL State will have more than a month to try to figure out how to stop that offense. It is possible - after all my '85 Bears were "unbeatable" until the league figured out the schemes to stop that D.

You're right, Sporty - you told me. Kudos to you for your insights - but as I noted above, "...I've been wrong before." I qualified my comments with "if" and allowed for the possibility that it wouldn't work out the way I thought. You mentioned Urban Meyer's "luck running out." It's obvious that the SEC's luck hasn't. In addition to having quality personnel and a recruiting system that feeds itself, in the past eight years a lot of things had to fall "just right" for the SEC to continue its run. And there wasn't much defense played in the SEC championship game. Verne Lundquist put it best in the second quarter when he said: "I thought the Mountain West championship was later tonight...." Actually, it reminded me more of a Big 12 game (which one of the participants still has a lot of Big 12 recruits).

But again - congratulations to Auburn and FL State. Hopefully it will be a great game.

SportsFan31313 commented on Sunday, Dec 08, 2013 at 17:14 PM

Auburn wins it all Sebekm. The ACC does not have the player personnel to stop the SEC power run. They have (SEC) have the largest offensive line in NCAA. The running backs are phenominal. Auburn will run the ball right down FSU throat and you know what? There is nothing they can do about it. Did you watch the SEC Championship game? Auburn ran the same play over and over and over again. Missouri defense could not stop the run. FSU is a passing league team. When Winston take that first hit from Auburn? It will take is heart, and the game will be over from the start.

There is. Reason behind all of this. It's called SEC football. We beat up on each other No College football team outside the SEC can beat a SEC too ten contender in my opinion.

I said it before time after time after time. The SEC Conference is the NFL of NCAA College Football.

7 years in a row of National Championships.

In NCAA College Football, you have the SEC, and then everbody else.

Soon to be 8 years in a row Baby.. LOL.

sebekm commented on Monday, Dec 09, 2013 at 13:17 PM

I agree, but not strongly enough to waste my money on it. I can't see FL State topping Auburn, but remember that most of us didn't see FL State blowing out Clemson or Alabama losing either. Nothing is certain in this world but death and taxes.

It looks like all the BCS bowls should provide pretty good entertainment. With what MI State did, I'm interested in seeing what they come up with against Stanford. Also, I expect Alabama to be highly motivated in the Sugar Bowl, and Oklahoma better be ready because it could be a bloodbath.

As to the SEC and everybody else - I'll point out that FL State is ranked #1 and that nearly 75% of the teams in the final BCS top-25 rankings are NOT from the SEC. In fact, what we have this year is what we have just about every year: the top-tier SEC teams (six or seven) are ranked, and then there's a big drop-off to the rest of the pack.

And then, don't forget (but which I'm sure you'll minimize) the SEC's record against all other conferences since the start of the BCS era through last summer:

SEC vs. PAC-12 regular season: 10-12
SEC vs. PAC-12 bowl games: 1-0
SEC vs. Big 12 regular season: 6-10
SEC vs. Big 12 bowl games: 21-8
SEC vs. ACC regular season: 42-36
SEC vs. ACC bowl games: 16-9
SEC vs. Big 10 regular season: 7-4
SEC vs. Big 10 bowl games: 19-19
SEC vs. Big East regular season: 16-15
SEC vs. Big East bowl games: 3-8

As thepostgame.com points out: "The record is clear. In head-to-head match-ups against other major conferences, the SEC has either a combined losing record or one that's generally only a little better than even."

From: http://www.thepostgame.com/commentary...

I'd still like to see the SEC "elites" playing strong out-of-conference teams early in the season on the road. This just about NEVER happens. The SEC powerhouses only play out-of-conference cupcakes early - both home and away - and run up the score to reinforce/up their rankings. Then when their in-conference cannibalization begins (just like every other conference), if they lose they have a greater tolerance to remain ranked. But there does seem to be some recognition within SEC ranks that the "cupcake games" ought to be at least reduced somewhat. See:

http://blogs.ajc.com/junkyard-blawg/2...

I don't blame you for pumping up the SEC - as a die-hard football fan I understand the motivation. My son is love with the Big-12, but he has come around to understanding that there are certain teams in the SEC who are far more likely to deliver when it matters most than their competitors. But he also understands (as I do) that this is more a function of several elite programs maintaining consistency through recruiting, coaching, whatever than it is an across-the-board, top-to-bottom domination by one conference over all the others.

SportsFan31313 commented on Wednesday, Dec 11, 2013 at 06:45 AM

But what is the SEC record against all the above conferences in the regular season?

Tiger5 commented on Wednesday, Dec 11, 2013 at 08:39 AM

I agree with sebekm that the SEC is very top heavy every year. The statistics listed above support that notion very well. The best teams(bowl participants) usually win. Everyone else plays break even ball at best during the regular season against other BCS conferences.

We Dawg fans tend to carry the SEC banner because UGA can't seem to win the NC. In our minds, we need something to thump our chests about, so we jump on the "SEC is best" train. This is a habit that I, for one, am trying to break. So with my new mindset in place I guess I will say...Go 'Noles!

sebekm commented on Wednesday, Dec 11, 2013 at 14:15 PM

"But what is the SEC record against all the above conferences in the regular season?"

It's in my post above, Sporty. I'll copy it from above:

SEC vs. PAC-12 regular season: 10-12
SEC vs. PAC-12 bowl games: 1-0
SEC vs. Big 12 regular season: 6-10
SEC vs. Big 12 bowl games: 21-8
SEC vs. ACC regular season: 42-36
SEC vs. ACC bowl games: 16-9
SEC vs. Big 10 regular season: 7-4
SEC vs. Big 10 bowl games: 19-19
SEC vs. Big East regular season: 16-15
SEC vs. Big East bowl games: 3-8

(These results are only through last summer.)

Tiger: On most of my posts and blogs I intentionally try to take an opposing view - just for debate purposes. Most of the time I state my actual opinion, but sometimes I'll argue the opposite side just to maintain a "balanced" dialogue. In the case of sports, I do think that most of the rest of the country has "SEC fatigue" and generally roots for the "other guy" - which usually coincides with rooting for the underdog as well. There is NO QUESTION that the best teams in the SEC are the best of the best. At least this has been demonstrated time and time again over the past decade. And the SEC has a great thing going in terms of recruiting and its national image. They have done an excellent job of maintaining a competitive advantage and have shrewdly positioned their conference into a dominant position.

IMHO - SEC schools are helped by the climate, the location of the schools, and the talent pool in a part of the country where a lot of the best talent would prefer to stay "close to home." Also, they manage their conference and non-conference scheduled opposition particularly well.

This is especially the case for Alabama, who almost never seems to play a top out-of-conference opponent away from home early in the season. I was watching (I think) an LSU game a few weeks ago and one of the commentators was talking about scheduling. He used an example from a few years ago where Nick Saban supposedly comes in and tells one of his assistants that he has just scheduled a future game against GA Tech. The assistant says to the effect: "Hey coach, have you seen what kind of offense they run? It's real tricky" (or words to that effect). Then the assistant gets ahold of some GA Tech film and he and Saban watch about ten minutes of it. Within the hour, Saban had cancelled the game with GA Tech.

As for the national championship game, I'm not sure who I'm going to be rooting for, except I have always liked Cinderella. Despite the way they took apart Alabama, it's hard for me to not think of Auburn as Cinderella - especially considering their in-conference record last year (0-8). When Bobby Bowden was at FL State, I found it very easy to root against them, so there's also the hangover from that. I suspect I'll pull for Auburn - especially since the school is so near Columbus, GA.

hollabackk commented on Wednesday, Dec 11, 2013 at 15:35 PM

I look for Fla State to win. Auburn has the talent to keep it close but i have to give the edge to State.

The SEC is so dominate because when they cheat they know how to keep their mouths shut. Other conferences havent learned to do that yet.

SportsFan31313 commented on Wednesday, Dec 11, 2013 at 19:37 PM

Auburn has the running game that the SEC is known for. FSU in my opinion, is a passing league team that feel will the wrath of playing against an SEC Contender.

Tiger5 commented on Thursday, Dec 12, 2013 at 08:48 AM

As a side note, the college football world is privileged once again to see UGA vs. Nebraska. I understand conference tie-ins and what have you, but as a UGA fan, I simply do not want to see us play the same team from the same conference in back to back years.

sebekm commented on Thursday, Dec 12, 2013 at 14:00 PM

USATODAY ran an article the other day titled: "This is what a 64-team college football playoff bracket would look like." It even shows the brackets with the first round teams plugged in. Interesting speculation. See:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/12/colle...

sebekm commented on Thursday, Dec 12, 2013 at 14:13 PM

But as a practical matter - I was thinking that it really wouldn't be too difficult for them to do a 32-team playoff system. 32 teams would include the final "Top 25" plus seven "deserving" teams who didn't quite make the top 25. (This will keep the controversy going about who shoulda woulda coulda made the playoffs and keep the pundits happy.)

They could run this playoff system and keep essentially the same regular and post season "start" and "finish" dates (assuming you start the season o/a 1 September and end it by the second week of January) if they do it this way:

*Limit "regular season" games to 10. Teams would play every weekend for 10 consecutive weeks - no byes. This would end the "regular season" about the second week of November (prior to Thanksgiving).

*Start the playoffs the first week of December. 32 teams means three "rounds" followed by semi-finals (4 teams) and then the national championship. The first three rounds and the "final four" would be played on consecutive weekends. Then you could have an open weekend ala the Super Bowl setup - or not - prior to the big game.

*The teams that go all the way to the championship game would play a maximum of 15 games, counting regular season and playoffs. I guess that's a couple games more than they now play, but for those teams next year who play a 12/13 game season, it would be only one or two games more.

Tiger5 commented on Friday, Dec 13, 2013 at 08:35 AM

I just wish I knew more about the politics and/or cash flow involved with the bowls. It must be tremendous beyond even the assumptions of the average fan, like me.

The 16 team format seems to work pretty well at the FCS level. As a casual fan of GSU, I have never been too disappointed in any decision pertaining to GSU's playoff selection (or not) or seeding, venue, etc.

The most obvious difference would, to me, be money. I can only assume a great deal more of it is passed around at the FBS level. In fact, that is rather obvious. The absense of bowl tie-ins at the FCS level leaves no other choice but to have a playoff system.

Consequently, like everything else, we will see practical, sensible structure of post-season FBS football when it becomes the best way for all involved to make more money. Honestly, as a self-proclaimed dirty rotten Capitalist, I am OK with that. I just hope it happens soon.

sebekm commented on Friday, Dec 13, 2013 at 19:44 PM

Tiger: I agree with you totally. It's always been "follow the money." In the current system, they now have 35 bowls. With a 32-team playoff you could keep almost all of the current bowl sites (I think), so those would continue to generate cash for the people that run them (even though the winners couldn't be called "bowl champions" as they now are). But I think it would generate a hell of a lot of interest across the country as you would have all these games really MEANING SOMETHING to the ultimate determination of the national championship.

Of course, some of the major conferences would be dead set against it. Why? Because - God forbid - what happens if an Alabama or a Stanford or a FL State got upset in the FIRST ROUND? Not too likely but not impossible. And then people like Saban and Miles and Meyer wouldn't have a month or more to gameplan an opponent for a whuppin' that gives them the highest possible national ranking or even the national championship itself.

No - the SEC and PAC-12 especially would probably be against expanding the field to 32 or even 16 because the end results if they got upset early in the tournament might have them dropping out of the Top 10 or Top 15. Wouldn't look good for their "legacies" - not to mention their recruiting efforts.


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