I believe that you and Sebe are more knowledgeable about these military scenarios than I am, HMJC. I will only comment that I think the China card will come into play with Kim jung Un somewhere along the way before a hot-war takes place.
The mid-east is another matter. I believe Israel means it with their; Never Again policy of people or nations killing Jews with impunity. They will not, IMHO, allow Iran to acquire it. Just as they did in Iraq when Saddam was moving toward nuclear development, they will strike Iran. After that...I do not know what will come down the pike.
Same thing with the bio-chemicals in Syria falling into the wrong hands. The members of the UN Security Council understand Thermo-Nuclear-Chemical War and its consequences even if Iran, NK and Syria do not.
That's just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Any scenerio if played out is scary. I can't really call China although they have too much to lose in the global market if they back North Korea with their military. Another factor to consider if you are of the doomsday mindset is; historicaly when a nation is fighting a war on two or more fronts it either results in increased casualties and cost or ultimately losing the war. My intent of the initial post was solicit opinions on one, what will be the no s@@t trigger point for a military response and two, how severe will it be? I know one thing for sure, we cannot afford to blow up another country and finance the rebuilding process considering we can't even do that for our own...
I forgot the how severe part. The only Muslim bomb is in Pakistan. Same place we killed Bin Laden. IF, and its a big IF...if somehow Al Quaeda gets the bomb or even a 'small' dirty one...then there could possibly be a nuclear retaliation. That is why I have a vial of Demoral, three syringes, a 357 magnum pistol, and 1 litre of water. Cus if it happens, I am going onto my roof with my wife and dog and briefly watch the light show until the end comes or right before it. Am not a Prepper...so one way or the other it will be lights out for me and mine.
Lets hope that never becomes the the case my fellow blogger. I would almost venture to say though that the lack of media coverage speaks to how serious North Korea is being taken; just hope they are right.
Hey. I've been watching this one for the past several weeks, too. It's a tough one to figure, because of several unknowns. First, we don't know who is really in charge. I read one article that said the NK military is pulling the strings; another that said Ding Dong Uno's AUNT is the *real* power behind the bluster; and the others say the kid is just trying to outdo his old man. The international community is trying to take it seriously but on the surface is characterizing it all as "bluster."
Then comes the flurry of reports on our "preparedness," and the types of weapons we have (and are under development) to counter the NK threat. Yesterday it was mobile lasers designed to shoot down drones and usable in ship-to-ship warfare. There have also been reports that there is little NK troop movement to indicate they are really getting ready to attack somebody or go totally defensive as a result of a missile attack on SK, Japan, or the U.S. or our interests.
My hunch: There's a lot of smoke but we won't know if there's a fire until we get burnt. Kind of like 9/11 except that we have sources and resources far beyond what we had in 2001 to monitor world events - inside and out.
I hope it's much ado about nothing, and NK just bloviating so that their missile and nuke tests get lost in the noise. But sooner or later, we're going to have to do something. Same with Iran, I'm afraid.
i think the wild card is china. they have always backed NK. but this time i think they are massing on the NK boarder to keep people there (military and civilian) from running to china. the last thing they want is our military running toward their boarder running down the NK military. not to mention they don't want a nuke, even a small one to go off in their neighborhood.
"North Korean Missle Launch Imminent"
"Iran to build more reactors around quake site"
"Pakistan test fires nuclear capable missle with ability to reach India"
I don't know folks, I don't know....