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TODAYS POLL PUTS OBAMA BACK IN THE LEAD
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NBC/WSJ poll: Presidential contest now tied

Heading into Monday's final debate and with just over two weeks until Election Day, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are now tied nationally, according the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama and Romney both get 47 percent among likely voters in the latest edition of the poll, conducted entirely in the aftermath of the second presidential debate last Monday. In the last national NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted before debate season began, the president held a narrow, three-point lead over his GOP challenger, 49 percent to 46 percent.

But among the wider pool of all registered voters in this new survey, Obama is ahead of Romney by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

Looking at some of the most important demographic groups, Romney leads among men (53 percent to 43 percent), Obama is up with women (51 percent to 43 percent) and they are essentially tied among voters in the Midwest.

The full poll — which was conducted Oct. 17-20 among 1,000 registered voters and 816 likely voters — will be released at 6:30 pm ET tonight.

The margin of error is plus-minus 3.1 percentage points for the sample of registered voters and plus-minus 3.43 percentage points for the sample of likely voters.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/21/14593294-nbcwsj-poll-presidential-contest-now-tied?lite


Latest Activity: Oct 21, 2012 at 3:52 PM


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sebekm commented on Sunday, Oct 21, 2012 at 16:12 PM

He may be in the game, but note that it was a Romney SURGE that evened the score in that poll. Romney was behind before.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001...

In THIS one - the results also released today - GALLUP says it's Romney 52%; Obama 45% among "likely voters."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/ele...

There is no doubt that momentum is with ROMNEY, regardless of the President's cutesy "romnesia" social media and speaking bashes. I predict that Romney will stay the course and keep it going on Monday night, with what I'm sure will be a debate that reinforces the strong showing he had in Romney-Obama I, where there was a similar (read: even-handed) moderator.

sebekm commented on Sunday, Oct 21, 2012 at 16:16 PM

(...oops - it's 52%-47% (not 45%) in favor of Romney in that Gallup poll....)

PoliticsNation commented on Sunday, Oct 21, 2012 at 16:21 PM

This is the latest polls..that poll you listed is old...Except the fact that people are not buying the snake oil that Romney/Ryan are selling...Obama will win..

PoliticsNation commented on Sunday, Oct 21, 2012 at 16:23 PM

Also, the MOST RECENT POLLS put the POTUS back in the lead in most areas. The only area Romney is leading(white men)...

sebekm commented on Sunday, Oct 21, 2012 at 16:34 PM

No - on all counts.

*The poll you cite puts the race in a DEAD HEAT. That means it's EVEN - not "POTUS back in the lead."

See: http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval...

And the Gallup poll I cited was released TODAY. Check the date at the top of the page - it's October 21st.

Plus - the projected electoral map still has Romney in the lead 206-201 with 131 "toss-ups":

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epol...

I repeat: Romney has the momentum, and I predict he will build on it on Monday night. Only a couple of weeks to go, and we'll be able to stop splitting hairs - MAYBE. We might have a repeat of 2000. Wouldn't THAT be grand?

Funkentelecky commented on Sunday, Oct 21, 2012 at 16:43 PM

Politics, the Gallup Poll is the most prestigious in American history. It has predicted 16/19 correctly since 1936 and is all alone with Romney winning and is spot on with their late October predictions as re-called by Karl Rove. The best sample is recorded with likely voters and they had Obama winning before October 3rd and the Romney surge will continue even more after Monday night’s Foreign policy debate which Romney will win because of the Presidents incompetence, he is not a leader my dear and it’s time for him to go back to Chicago.

http://news.yahoo.com/other-polls-sho...

Gallup is the epitome of integrity and impeccable standards, NBC isn’t it’s a Democrat partisan group giving you false hope.

Sheran commented on Sunday, Oct 21, 2012 at 20:20 PM

I Like the Gallup poll myself!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/ele...

Iknowyou commented on Monday, Oct 22, 2012 at 08:41 AM

I want to thank you PoliticsNation.

I was nu-decided on who I was going to vote for in this presidential election until you started spamming the blog site with all of these attacks.

I will now vote for Romney.

sebekm commented on Monday, Oct 22, 2012 at 11:32 AM

...and Romney now leads in CO:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publi...

sebekm commented on Monday, Oct 22, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Note that the above rasmussenreports.com link - dated TODAY - states:

"....Colorado remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. But Colorado is the fourth swing state that has moved in Romney’s direction in the past week. Florida, Missouri and North Carolina have now shifted from Toss-Up to Leans Romney."

This is more evidence that Romney has the momentum. And as in love and war: when you've got 'em on the run, you need to keep 'em on the run. Look for Romney to stay the course and maintain his edge tonight.

(I won't be watching, but I'll check in with the talking heads on the networks and cable news outlets and read their faces afterwards. Their expressions usually tell the story about who "won.")

JimmyMack commented on Monday, Oct 22, 2012 at 14:30 PM

We are all blowing smoke rite now...but it is still BHO by a nose at the wire.

PoliticsNation commented on Monday, Oct 22, 2012 at 17:08 PM

@ I know you...I've assessed your blogs-you were never going to vote for Obama...
@Sebekm...Obama will win...
@Jimmymack...Your right.

sebekm commented on Monday, Oct 22, 2012 at 17:36 PM

Obviously I disagree. Romney has the momentum and is pushing for every vote he can get. It even looks like Romney is going after the UFO/space alien vote! The latest demonstration of this is in Iowa. As you may recall, Ray Kinsella built his ball field in Iowa after he heard the words: "If you build it, he will come." We now see that the creators of crop circles in the Hawkeye State are trying to "ease our pain" by wooing the outer space vote for the GOP candidate with a crop circle "Portrait of Romney":

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dm...

But Not to be outdone, President Obama has recently garnered some important endorsements from a few of his "close supporters" - Hugo Chavez, Vladimir Putin, and the Castro brothers:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/...

sebekm commented on Monday, Oct 22, 2012 at 17:42 PM

On the tube this evening:

Besides the Bears-Lions, tonight's third Presidential Debate is also competing with game 7 of the MLB National League Championship Series. I wonder if anybody will be watching Romney-Obama LIVE?

SportsFan31313 commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Debates:

Debate Winner #1: Romney Romney

Debate Winner #2: President Barrack Obama

Debate Winner #3: President Barrack Obama

Electoral College Indicates President Barrack Obama is leading Candidate Mitt Romney 237 to 191. 270 needed to win the Presidential Election.

sebekm commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Obama didn't win with a swing state (Ohio) sample:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6URuvg...

...and it appears that Obama supporters ("'bots?") are more worried than ever:

http://www.infowars.com/obama-support...

...but I predict there were two contests held last night which had more impact on their respective competitive pursuits than Romney-Obama III. They were:

1. Bears 13, Lions 7

and

2. Giants 9, Cardinals 0

Romney essentially sealed HIS deal in the FIRST debate. That's when he had his first opportunity to go unfiltered to the nation; a whole lot of people were watching; and he dominated. THAT was the difference-maker. If he wins the election, he got the votes he needed that night. Everything else since then has just been noise - from and for both sides.

Only two weeks to go. Then we get to complain for four more years.

SportsFan31313 commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:19 PM

I really don't believe that That Debate will have any impact on this election. People are going to cast their votes for whom ever they want to vote for regardless of these debates. A Poll was given and it was a majority republican corrum. When asked about the debate, they said that they would vote for Romney regardless of the debate. So there you have it.

SportsFan31313 commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:21 PM

President Obama will win this election whether or not it is close, he will win.

Iknowyou commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Give a man a fish, and he eats for a day.
Give a man a welfare check, a free cell phone, food stamps, section 8 housing, and some Air Jordan's and he will vote for Obama for the rest of his life.

SportsFan31313 commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:29 PM

The majority of the Southern States votes republican anyway. The North seem to vote Democrat. When you are living in the South, you will hear constantly Republican views. The North speak Democratic views. In my opinion the Mid West are a toss up. Or what I would say swing.

timeontarget commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:33 PM

SportsFan, you very well may be correct.

If so within four years I imagine we will be operating as a socialist country.

Then our days will be numbered and we will continue to decline in power nationally as well as internationally.

I'm glad I'm old.

I feel sorry for my grandchildren.

sebekm commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:43 PM

You've got it, IKY. But back on the topic of "polls." At this late stage of the 2012 presidential contest, I am believing the only poll that has correctly predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1980: the University of Colorado Electoral College Prediction Model. A couple of weeks ago, this model predicted a Romney win. It now shows that Romney will win BIG on November 6th:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/elect...

So regardless of what any focus groups or tracking polls indicate along the way, I believe that Romney has assumed command of this election. I've mentioned one problem Mr. Obama has which might not be showing up in any tracking polls - the "stealth" vote. That's those voters who voted for Obama last time but will only admit their error when they pull the lever in the election booth this time for ROMNEY.

The President's other problem is HIS RECORD. Time and time again, it has been shown that the American people ultimately vote their pocketbooks on election day. They will do it again this time. IMHO - that is the key factor which will make Mr. Obama a one-term president.

SportsFan31313 commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:46 PM

IKnowyou States:

"Give a man a fish, and he eats for a day.
Give a man a welfare check, a free cell phone, food stamps, section 8 housing, and some Air Jordan's and he will vote for Obama for the rest of his life."

Well If you were offered those items too, I don't think you would turn them down either.

SportsFan31313 commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:49 PM

The Republicans can assume what ever command they would like. The results are determined at the Voting Polls. President Obama will win this election for a 2nd term. Just watch, and see.

SportsFan31313 commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 12:50 PM

TimeOnTarget,

I hear you. :-)

sebekm commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 13:00 PM

Nothing we say here - especially at this point in time - makes any difference. The proof will be revealed on November 6th. If President Obama wins, he will have to make history for the second time in his Presidential election lifetime. This time he has a RECORD. I'm betting that his record will be his downfall. I believe I am correct. You can believe whatever you want - that's America.

Iknowyou commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 13:41 PM

Nothing we say here - especially at this point in time - makes any difference.

You are correct sebekm, Romney will win in Georgia no matter what we say on this pe-ditty blog.

SportsFan31313 commented on Tuesday, Oct 23, 2012 at 15:16 PM

I agree with you Sebekm and Iknowyou: It does not make any difference. The State Of Georgia is a Republican State anyway:

In my opinion, I believe it's because people who would probably vote democratic (young minorities) that live in Rural Areas in the State (which is majority location wise) do not get out, and vote. In addition, certain religious denominations do not vote either. It's been that way for many years, even before my time.

timeontarget commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 06:27 AM

About the welfare check, free cell phone, section eight housing etc, I personally qualify for all of those things and I've been qualified for well over a decade.

Up till now I've never had to stoop so low as to accept a hand out from any other than my family.

I hope I'm able to keep it that way.

I hope the good Lord will take me away before that happens.

Give a man a handout and you destroy his pride.

A man with little or no self esteem is less of a man.

SportsFan31313 commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Sometimes A man's pride will cause him to lose out on the very things that he may need the most. I am guilty of that too. A lot of times it's not that the person in need is looking for a handout, but just a hand in a time of need.

SportsFan31313 commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 12:38 PM

President Obama is now up 5 points in the latest Gallup poll.

President Obama 50%
Mitt Romney 45%

2% margin of error

Funkentelecky commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 14:38 PM

SF3, are you reporting the NBC/WSJ poll?

In the Gallup poll Romney still leads among likely voters which are the most accurate sample:

50%-47%

BHO leads registered voter sample:

48%-47%

These are bad for the President because that final 3-5% votes against the incumbent over 90% of the time. That’s why when an Incumbent locks in at 50% the challenger is toast; however in this case BHO will be toast 11/6/12.
Here are the Gallup Numbers. The Gallup is the most prestigious a most accurate in American history, it has picked the President accurately in the last 16/19 elections since 1936 and has been correct on every election since 1980 within two weeks of an election.

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Romney/Ryan by a huge swing state landslide victory!

sebekm commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 14:42 PM

I'm not sure where your're getting your info, but according to the Gallup web site, it's still ROMNEY by 3 points:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/ele...

(As Jimmy Stewart said at the end of "Call Northside 777":

"Check the date....now...check the date..."

at the top of the page.

Also, Rasmussen has Romney ahead by 4 points:

http://www.examiner.com/article/romne...

These are daily polls with the date posted at the top of the page.

The guys who run these two polls have been making the cable news outlets over the past weeks. They were on FNC last night. BOTH of them - and they have decades of polling experience with presidential and other elections - predicted ROMNEY WILL WIN.

Also - as I said above - these tracking polls, no matter who is up or down, are probably irrelevant at this point. The Gallup and Rasmussen guys basically said so. IMHO - the best predictor is the University of Colorado electoral college model which I cited previously. This model has NEVER been wrong since its creation, and it predicts Romney will win with more than 300 electoral votes.

(Dick Morris backed up this poll via his comments last night on FNC - which worries me since Morris is the guy who was a close aid and confidant to the Clintons before turning on them - I think because HRC didn't like him after his scandal with a prostitute in 1996.

See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/...

But just because Dick Morris agrees with it obviously doesn't discredit the UCO electoral college model.)

SportsFan31313 commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 17:24 PM

Election 2012 Tracking October 17-23 2012 Updates daily at 1:00 pmETreflects one day change.

Registers Voters

Obama 48%
Romney 47%

Likely Voters

Romney 50%
Obama 47%

SportsFan31313 commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 17:44 PM

Funk,

I don't remember where I saw it this morning. But I just saw what you posted.

However; what I do know for sure is that I saw that in the electoral college:

President Obama has 237 Electoral Votes
Mitt Romney has 191. @70 is needed to win the Election. Obama is well on his way for another victory.

Romney may have the popularity votes.
Bur Obama have the electoral college.

Also, the State Of Georgia votes majority Republican, and clearly Mitt Romney will carry that State. But look at the other Northern States. It is TOTALLY language there.

Obama will win Ohio again as well, and that maybe the State that will put President Obama back in Office fr a 2nd term.

SportsFan31313 commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 17:47 PM

Sorry for the typos.

I have to start using my glasses. :-)

sebekm commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 18:09 PM

You have to watch which "polls" you trust. I trust Rasmussen and Gallup because they have shown to be NON-partisan over the years. They show Romney in the lead TODAY by the stats I stated earlier.

My suggestion as to electoral map predictors is the same: watch which ones you trust. I TRUST this one - as do most of the networks:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epol...

This map shows Romney-Ryan: 206; Obama-Biden: 201.

And as I said - these polls as we get closer to the election become more and more irrelevant as a huge chunk of the population HAS ALREADY VOTED, either by mail-in ballot (as I have) or in early voting around the country.

Trust the UCO Electoral College predictor. IT HAS NEVER BEEN WRONG - even when the tracking polls and electoral college polls have said OTHERWISE.

I predict Romney will win. Less than 2 weeks to go.

sebekm commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 18:14 PM

I know it may bring you pain, but read all about it here:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/elect...

sebekm commented on Wednesday, Oct 24, 2012 at 18:22 PM

....but if you don't want to, here's the best part:

"The state-based economic data used by the researchers (for their electoral college model/predictor) has been available since 1980, according to the university’s web site. When the data is applied to past elections, retroactively, it correctly chooses all of the winners. Most notably, it even correctly estimated the 2000 outcome, when Al Gore won the popular vote, but George W. Bush won the Electoral College."

Although they also say "anything is possible," my experience tells me that the smart bet is on a winner until they lose. This predictor has been a winner EVERY SINGLE TIME for the past 32 years.

My sense is that it will be correct again.

timeontarget commented on Thursday, Oct 25, 2012 at 07:25 AM

Murrelet, I don't think Mitt Romney is a dim bulb.

He has done very well in the world of business.

Free enterprise is the backbone of American exceptionalism.

Really smart people aren't interested in public service because the nature of our politics has become too down and dirty.

In this modern age of tolerance there are few among us with no skeletons in our closet.

Remember Herman Cain.

sebekm commented on Thursday, Oct 25, 2012 at 16:11 PM

It's all spin on the airwaves and in the media - and even on these here blog pages. Only the clueless will be swayed from here on out (or those who have their votes bought with pizzas, cell phones, etc.) All the decisions by fair and honest voters have been made, and a big chunk of the votes have already been cast.

We can diddle back and forth here for awhile, but the answer will be revealed in 11 days or so (unless we have a repeat of 2000).

God bless America.

sebekm commented on Thursday, Oct 25, 2012 at 16:19 PM

...but speaking of "clueless" - heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrre's Joey:

http://nation.foxnews.com/joe-biden/2...

sebekm commented on Thursday, Oct 25, 2012 at 16:22 PM

...and as for the debates, the Rude Pundit has its sources, but I like USATODAY - a not particularly conservative publication - which gave the overall edge to ROMNEY:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/po...


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