Poll Watch
"I Don't Mind A Parasite. I Object To A Cut-Rate One."
Last comment by sebekm 1 year, 11 months ago.

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The "drip-drip-drip" continues as we move toward November 6th. Only 48 days to go. Here are the latest poll results:

RASMUSSEN:

*Swing State Daily Tracking: Romney 47%, Obama 46%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

USATODAY:

*Swing States Poll: Obama 48%, Romney 46%

*Nationwide: Obama 47%, Romney 46%

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-09-18/obama-romney-swing-states-poll/57803524/1

OBAMA FOREIGN POLICY APPROVAL RATING:

*Registered Voters: 49% (down from 54%)

*"Independent" Voters: 41% (down from 53%)

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/obama-s-foreign-policy-approval-rating-drops-after-mideast-turmoil

Further - with the Middle East "outbreaks," which I believe the administration will eventually get around to acknowledging WERE "orchestrated" or "coordinated" attacks intentionally planned to coincide with the 11th anniversary of September 11th - serious doubts are beginning to grow about the Obama administration's overall strategy in Afghanistan. See:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/us-usa-afghanistan-idUSBRE88H1FJ20120919

But on a lighter note: Perhaps there is some HOPE for CHANGE in the future of American politics after all. According to recent news reports, THIS man has not ruled out "running for office:"

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/09/18/tim-tebow-i-havent-ruled-out-running-for-office-once-through-with-football/


Latest Activity: Sep 19, 2012 at 2:28 PM


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JimmyMack commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Nice Pic above Sebe....polls-moles:

BHO by a nose at the wire.

sebekm commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Hi Jimmy:

But I'll bet THIS issue will affect the polls:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/r...

When CBS news starts to get cynical on a Democratic Party candidate, then methinks the worm is starting to turn. Who would have thought that FOREIGN POLICY would play such a prominent role as we drip toward November 6th? All of this Middle-East stuff has just come out of nowhere.

My prior prediction still stands: If the President doesn't handle all of this correctly (and he needs a bit of good fortune on events over the next six weeks), it could be an election-decider. Jimmy Carter had the economy whipping his behind, too, but IMHO it was the Iran Hostage crisis that moved enough of his base to Reagan (who only got 50.7% of the popular vote) and John B. Anderson (who stripped away nearly 7% of the popular vote).

SportsFan31313 commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 15:09 PM

I just saw on CNN at 3:02 PM EDT that President Obama has widen the votes on swing states by more than 5 points.
OHIO FLORIDA VIRGINIA and others. 50 -43 49 - 43 49-43 percent of the votes there.

sebekm commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 16:08 PM

Yes - here's a good display of "swing state" percentages. USATODAY seems to be doing it almost daily now:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics...

The real interesting poll results will be after each of the debates.

I tend to "beware" of polling done by CNN and FNC - or their affiliates - because I don't trust their targeting/sampling methods. I've found that if you look at USATODAY, Rasmussen, Gallup, and Quinnipiac University polling results, you can get a pretty good cross-section of the status of opinion.

I wonder what effect - if any - THIS gaffe will have:

http://freebeacon.com/obama-you-cant-...

They've kept Uncle Joe under wraps lately, so that they can focus on bashing Romney's fumble-tonguing. But it won't help if the President offsets it with his own.

SportsFan31313 commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 16:11 PM

Romney will not win sebekm.

SportsFan31313 commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 16:13 PM

I don't trust FOX Television.

sebekm commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 16:47 PM

I'll wait until after the debates to make my "best guess" on the winner. Romney has had a bad 10 days, but it looks like the President is catching up (as in "going down") himself this week.

As for trust in news, you have to know what you're watching. I don't really "trust" ANY of them, but I know where FNC is coming from. Over the years, the others have - IMHO - tilted wildly to the left while claiming to be "impartial" and only "reporting the news." They now try to MAKE the news, and cherry-pick/slant coverage toward their favorites. And make no mistake: they HAVE their favorites. Think Max Mercy in "The Natural" and his statement to Roy Hobbs that he's in business "to make or break the likes of you." That's today's national "mainstream" news media, which sees itself as political king-makers.

FNC was founded specifically to be a counterpoint (i.e., "balance") to the liberal left media. If you recognize that going in, you can always gauge where they're coming from and filter accordingly. I do the same with the rest also (assume the left tilt) and I'm rarely disappointed. But I despise them for being SNEAKY about it.

sebekm commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 18:13 PM

BTW: The official November 6, 2012 mail-in (a.k.a. "absentee") ballots are on the street! My houshold submitted our applications last month, and the ballots arrived in the mail today. Anybody who wants to avoid standing in line on November 6th, can solve the problem by downloading an application from here:

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/elec...

filling it out, and mailing it to your appropriate county registrar. Find their mailing address here:

http://sos.georgia.gov/cgi-bin/county...

Sheran commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 20:31 PM

A lot is being said in the media about Mitt Romney not being"likable" or that he
Doesn't "relate well" to people.
Frankly, we struggled to understand why.
So after much research, we have come up with a Top Ten List to explain this"unlikablility."
Top Ten Reasons To Dislike Mitt Romney:

1. Drop-dead, collar-ad handsome with gracious, statesman like aura.
Looks like every central casting's #1 choice for Commander-in-Chief.

2. Been married to ONE woman his entire life, and has been faithful to her,
Including through her bouts with breast cancer and MS.

3. No scandals or skeletons in his closet. (How boring is that?)

4. Can't speak in a fake, southern, "black preacher voice" when necessary.

5. Highly intelligent. Graduated cum laude from both Harvard Law School and
Harvard Business School...and by the way, his academic records are NOT sealed.

6. Doesn't smoke or drink alcohol, and has never done drugs, not even in the counter
-culture age when he went to college. Too square for today's America ?

7. Represents an America of "yesterday", where people believed in God, went to Church,
Didn't screw around, worked hard, and became a SUCCESS!

8. Has a family of five great sons....and none of them have police records or are in drug rehab.
But of course, they were raised by a stay-at-home mom, and that"choice" deserves America's scorn.

9. Oh yes.....he's a MORMON. We need to be very afraid of that very strange religion that
Teaches its members to be clean-living, patriotic, fiscally conservative, charitable, self-reliant, and honest.

10. And one more point.....pundits say because of his wealth, he can't relateto ordinary Americans.
I guess that's because he made that money HIMSELF.....as opposed to marrying it or inheriting it from Dad.

Funkentelecky commented on Thursday, Sep 20, 2012 at 21:22 PM

Sheran,
Let me be the first to commend you for your compelling post on why I like Governor Romney to be President of the USA instead of the Community Organizer Teleprompter Extraordinaire in Chief!

JimmyMack commented on Friday, Sep 21, 2012 at 10:18 AM

#1 Romney looks like the walking dead.
#2Ditto BHO
#3 No Scandals cept made up Republican ones.
#4 Romney can speak exclusive conservatism on Social Issues at private fund raisers;fact
#5BHO no sealed academic records.
#6 BHO hasn't beat up a gay looking guy while in college.
#7 BHO represents a break from the "good ole days" of lynching, segregation, and sitting in the back of the bus and making women of color give up their seat to obese white men.
#8 Has two wonderfully sweet girls and a beautiful wife and married once.
#9 BHO Christian who doesen't believe in a Second New Testament.
#10 BHO not guilty of out soursing millions of jobs to third world nations for personal profit.

BHO by a nose at the wire.

SportsFan31313 commented on Friday, Sep 21, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Funkentelecky, Sheran,

The score is

President Obama 6
Presidential Candidate Romney 4

President Obama wins agian!!!!!!

sebekm commented on Friday, Sep 21, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Sporty: I'm not sure where you get 6-4 from. From the posts by Jimmy, Funky and Sheran, I count it 11-10 Romney.

SportsFan31313 commented on Friday, Sep 21, 2012 at 13:16 PM

Just a little humor.

sebekm commented on Friday, Sep 21, 2012 at 13:58 PM

...and speaking of trust (or lack thereof) in the news media, Gallup reports today that "U.S. Distrust in Media Hits New High." They provide a good analysis here:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157589/dis...

golfnut31316 commented on Friday, Sep 21, 2012 at 14:29 PM

I will throw my vote in for Romney.

As far as polls go, well how can you really believe polls, who do they ask. I have never been polled.

I don't believe any of the news media. They have too much influence as it is.

sebekm commented on Friday, Sep 21, 2012 at 15:37 PM

I agree. And as for polls, it's all in how they do the sampling. There's a pretty good explanation of what to look for when examining political polls here:

http://statistics.about.com/od/Applic...

golfnut31316 commented on Friday, Sep 21, 2012 at 18:09 PM

Here is what BHO says is his most regrettable mistake.

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-blames-go...

sebekm commented on Saturday, Sep 22, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Yes - now comes the frantic apologies and pandering to try to shore up "the base." By all accounts, Hispanics are very disappointed, as indicated by the grilling Mr. Obama received on Univision the other day:

http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/2012/...

Obviously, Univision is NOT in the Dems' pocket. The "mainstream" media should follow their lead as to how an incumbent SHOULD be questioned on his failures. It's too bad they won't give him a grilling on foreign policy, now that the folly of the administration's Middle East strategy is beginning to have explosive and deadly results.

But speaking of polls - here's Dick Morris' spin on why the polls "understate" the Romney vote:

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-pol...

I do agree with him on one thing: the 1980 election is the best one to compare with this year's race. As of now, Romney doesn't look like "a Ronald Reagan," but back in 1980, REAGAN didn't look like the Ronald Reagan we see now through the eyepiece of historical perspective.

45 days and counting....

sebekm commented on Saturday, Sep 22, 2012 at 12:31 PM

....and here's a pretty good analysis by Mort Zuckerman of Romney's election problems:

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/article...

up2sumptin commented on Saturday, Sep 22, 2012 at 12:44 PM

When does early voting start?

sebekm commented on Saturday, Sep 22, 2012 at 12:57 PM

I haven't seen anything announced yet. Last time, I saw an article in the Courier and it was posted here:

http://www.libertycountyga.com/index....

JimmyMack commented on Sunday, Sep 23, 2012 at 12:30 PM

We can ask the webmeister via message re start of early voting.

If'n you are reading this Pat give us the word.

Jimmy The Forgiven One

sebekm commented on Sunday, Sep 23, 2012 at 15:18 PM

Forgiven, but not Forgotten.

As to early voting, elections.mytimetovote.com has a page which says that "early voting begins" for Georgia voters on October 15th. There's also a whole pack of great information - all in one place - on key dates, addresses/phone numberes, census data, bills passed during the current state legislative session, voter ID/registration requirements, etc.

See: http://elections.mytimetovote.com/geo...

JimmyMack commented on Sunday, Sep 23, 2012 at 16:17 PM

Sebe Be THE MAN!!!! Danka.

up2sumptin commented on Sunday, Sep 23, 2012 at 16:50 PM

Danke Seb

sebekm commented on Sunday, Sep 23, 2012 at 16:56 PM

Bitte schoen. Tschuss!

sebekm commented on Monday, Sep 24, 2012 at 12:32 PM

..and now comes new "polls" - one which shows Romney gaining significant ground with the "middle class":

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/...

and another in which the righties try to show "unskewed" poll results:

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/


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